Incorporating social vulnerability in infectious disease mathematical modelling: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Highlighted by the rise of COVID-19, climate change, and conflict, socially vulnerable populations are least resilient to disaster. In infectious disease management, mathematical models are a commonly used tool. Researchers should include social vulnerability in models to strengthen their utility in reflecting real-world dynamics. We conducted a scoping review to evaluate how researchers have incorporated social vulnerability into infectious disease mathematical models. METHODS: The methodology followed the Joanna Briggs Institute and updated Arksey and O'Malley frameworks, verified by the PRISMA-ScR checklist. PubMed, Clarivate Web of Science, Scopus, EBSCO Africa Wide Information, and Cochrane Library were systematically searched for peer-reviewed published articles. Screening and extracting data were done by two independent researchers. RESULTS: Of 4075 results, 89 articles were identified. Two-thirds of articles used a compartmental model (n = 58, 65.2%), with a quarter using agent-based models (n = 24, 27.0%). Overall, routine indicators, namely age and sex, were among the most frequently used measures (n = 42, 12.3%; n = 22, 6.4%, respectively). Only one measure related to culture and social behaviour (0.3%). For compartmental models, researchers commonly constructed distinct models for each level of a social vulnerability measure and included new parameters or influenced standard parameters in model equations (n = 30, 51.7%). For all agent-based models, characteristics were assigned to hosts (n = 24, 100.0%), with most models including age, contact behaviour, and/or sex (n = 18, 75.0%; n = 14, 53.3%; n = 10, 41.7%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Given the importance of equitable and effective infectious disease management, there is potential to further the field. Our findings demonstrate that social vulnerability is not considered holistically. There is a focus on incorporating routine demographic indicators but important cultural and social behaviours that impact health outcomes are excluded. It is crucial to develop models that foreground social vulnerability to not only design more equitable interventions, but also to develop more effective infectious disease control and elimination strategies. Furthermore, this study revealed the lack of transparency around data sources, inconsistent reporting, lack of collaboration with local experts, and limited studies focused on modelling cultural indicators. These challenges are priorities for future research.

Preventing avoidable hospital admissions after emergency care in humanitarian settings: a cross-sectional review of Médecins Sans Frontières emergency departments.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to describe the types of emergency departments (EDs), and the acuity, types and disposition of conditions managed at Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)-supported EDs in humanitarian settings. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND OUTCOME MEASURES: This was a multicentre, cross-sectional review of visits to MSF-supported EDs from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2018. EDs were classified into advanced-level, general-level, paediatric and trauma. Variables analysed included: age group, condition, acuity and ED disposition. Frequencies and percentages stratified by ED type or region were reported. RESULTS: MSF supported 26 EDs in 12 countries, with a total of 1 388 698 visits between 2014 and 2018. Most patients were discharged home (n=1 097 456, 79%), with nearly 0% mortality (n=4692). The majority of visits at general-level and paediatric EDs were for medical conditions (n=600 088, 78% and n=45 276, 96%, respectively), while nearly half of advanced-level EDs visits were for surgical conditions (n=201 189, 48%). Almost all visits to trauma EDs were for surgical conditions (n=148 078, 98%). Overall, most surgical conditions were traumatic injuries (n=484 008, 94%), the majority unintentional (n=425 487, 82%). The top three most common classified medical conditions were respiratory infections, malaria and diarrhoea. CONCLUSIONS: EDs are critical in improving the agility and access to emergency care (EC) in humanitarian settings. This study demonstrated that EC provision resulted in the majority of patients being discharged from EDs, helping prevent avoidable hospital admissions. These results could help better understand the healthcare needs of vulnerable populations, improve responsiveness to emergency conditions and support programmatic planning in humanitarian settings.

Surgical Trainee Supervision During Non-Trauma Emergency Laparotomy in Rwanda and South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: The primary objective was to describe the level of surgical trainee autonomy during non-trauma emergency laparotomy (NTEL) operations in Rwanda and South Africa. The secondary objective was to identify potential associations between trainee autonomy, and patient mortality and reoperation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a prospective, observational study of NTEL operations at 3 teaching hospitals in South Africa and Rwanda over a 1-year period from September 1, 2017 to August 31, 2018. The study included 543 NTEL operations performed by the acute care and general surgery services on adults over the age of 18 years. RESULTS: Surgical trainees led 3-quarters of NTEL operations and, of these, 72% were performed autonomously in Rwanda and South Africa. Notably, trainee autonomy was not significantly associated with reoperation or mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Trainees were able to gain autonomous surgical experience without impacting mortality or reoperation outcomes, while still providing surgical support in a high-demand setting.

Identifying knowledge needed to improve surgical care in Southern Africa using a theory of change approach.

Surgical healthcare has been prioritised in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a regional intergovernmental entity promoting equitable and sustainable economic growth and socioeconomic development. However, challenges remain in translating political prioritisation into effective and equitable surgical healthcare. The AfroSurg Collaborative (AfroSurg) includes clinicians, public health professionals and social scientists from six SADC countries; it was created to identify context-specific, critical areas where research is needed to inform evidence-grounded policy and implementation. In January 2020, 38 AfroSurg members participated in a theory of change (ToC) workshop to agree on a vision: 'An African-led, regional network to enable evidence-based, context-specific, safe surgical care, which is accessible, timely, and affordable for all, capturing the spirit of Ubuntu[1]' and to identify necessary policy and service-delivery knowledge needs to achieve this vision. A unified ToC map was created, and a Delphi survey was conducted to rank the top five priority knowledge needs. In total, 45 knowledge needs were identified; the top five priority areas included (1) mapping of available surgical services, resources and providers; (2) quantifying the burden of surgical disease; (3) identifying the appropriate number of trainees; (4) identifying the type of information that should be collected to inform service planning; and (5) identifying effective strategies that encourage geographical retention of practitioners. Of the top five knowledge needs, four were policy-related, suggesting a dearth of much-needed information to develop regional, evidenced-based surgical policies. The findings from this workshop provide a roadmap to drive locally led research and create a collaborative network for implementing research and interventions. This process could inform discussions in other low-resource settings and enable more evidenced-based surgical policy and service delivery across the SADC countries and beyond.

Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality trends by sex and population group in South Africa: 2002-2014.

BACKGROUND: South Africa (SA) has experienced a rapid transition in the Human Development Index (HDI) over the past decade, which had an effect on the incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aims to provide CRC incidence and mortality trends by population group and sex in SA from 2002 to 2014. METHODS: Incidence data were extracted from the South African National Cancer Registry and mortality data obtained from Statistics South Africa (STATS SA), for the period 2002 to 2014. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated using the STATS SA mid-year population as the denominator and the Segi world standard population data for standardisation. A Joinpoint regression analysis was computed for the CRC ASIR and ASMR by population group and sex. RESULTS: A total of 33,232 incident CRC cases and 26,836 CRC deaths were reported during the study period. Of the CRC cases reported, 54% were males and 46% were females, and among deaths reported, 47% were males and 53% were females. Overall, there was a 2.5% annual average percentage change (AAPC) increase in ASIR from 2002 to 2014 (95% CI: 0.6-4.5, p-value < 0.001). For ASMR overall, there was 1.3% increase from 2002 to 2014 (95% CI: 0.1-2.6, p-value < 0.001). The ASIR and ASMR among population groups were stable, with the exception of the Black population group. The ASIR increased consistently at 4.3% for black males (95% CI: 1.9-6.7, p-value < 0.001) and 3.4% for black females (95% CI: 1.5-5.3, p-value < 0.001) from 2002 to 2014, respectively. Similarly, ASMR for black males and females increased by 4.2% (95% CI: 2.0-6.5, p-value < 0.001) and 3.4% (, 95%CI: 2.0-4.8, p-value < 0.01) from 2002 to 2014, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The disparities in the CRC incidence and mortality trends may reflect socioeconomic inequalities across different population groups in SA. The rapid increase in CRC trends among the Black population group is concerning and requires further investigation and increased efforts for cancer prevention, early screening and diagnosis, as well as better access to cancer treatment.

A geospatial analysis of two-hour surgical access to district hospitals in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In a robust health care system, at least 80% of a country's population should be able to access a district hospital that provides surgical care within 2 hours. The objective was to identify the proportion of the population living within 2 hours of a district hospital with surgical capacity in South Africa. METHODS: All government hospitals in the country were identified. Surgical district hospitals were defined as district hospitals with a surgical provider, a functional operating theatre, and the provision of at least one caesarean section annually. The proportion of the population within two-hour access was estimated using service area methods. RESULTS: Ninety-eight percent of the population had two-hour access to any government hospital in South Africa. One hundred and thirty-eight of 240 (58%) district hospitals had surgical capacity and 86% of the population had two-hour access to these facilities. CONCLUSION: Improving equitable surgical access is urgently needed in sub-Saharan Africa. This study demonstrated that in South Africa, just over half of district hospitals had surgical capacity but more than 80% of the population had two-hour access to these facilities. Strengthening district hospital surgical capacity is an international mandate and needed to improve access.

WhatsApp Mobile Health Platform to Support Fracture Management by Non-Specialists in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Traumatic fractures are common in sub-Saharan Africa, a region with a shortfall of orthopaedic surgeons, and can result in morbidity if not appropriately managed. WhatsApp is an encrypted smartphone application and ubiquitous in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to assess the use of WhatsApp as a mobile health platform to support fracture management by non-orthopaedic doctors in Cape Town, South Africa. STUDY DESIGN: A WhatsApp orthopaedic referral group was created between non-orthopaedic doctors from community health clinics and the orthopaedic team from a first-level hospital to manage traumatic fractures. Non-orthopaedic doctors posted cases on the orthopaedic referral group and the orthopaedic team provided advice. Traumatic fracture data from January 1 to June 30, 2018 were analyzed and outcomes included response time, management advice, and treatment by facility level. RESULTS: Seventy-two non-orthopaedic doctors posted 731 cases of traumatic fractures to the 5-member orthopaedic team. Six hundred and sixty-one (90%) cases were responded to within 1 hour. Three hundred and fifty-four (48%) patients were treated successfully by non-orthopaedic doctors at community health clinics, 288 (39%) were treated by the orthopaedic team at the first-level hospital, and 89 (12%) were referred directly to an orthopaedic subspecialist at a third-level hospital. CONCLUSIONS: The WhatsApp orthopaedic referral group provided a free telementoring platform for non-orthopaedic doctors to successfully manage traumatic fracture cases at community health clinics. This type of mobile health platform can be applicable to other resource-limited settings if disease burden is high and specialists are scarce.